12/29/2023 0 Comments Popular vote totals for 2016 election![]() ![]() Interestingly, this is a long-run property, not a modern phenomenon. ![]() This jumps to 45% of elections decided by 1 percentage point or less (about 2.6 million votes by the 2016 turnout). ![]() The popular vote winner will lose 32% of elections decided by 2 percentage points or less (1.3 million votes by the 2016 turnout). Our analysis shows that inversions are surprisingly likely, especially in close elections. Instead, either party is likely to win an inversion in a close election. But there is nothing special about winning a majority of the votes – there is no jump in probabilities at 50%. Unsurprisingly, the curve slopes upwards, which means that Republicans are more likely to win the presidency when they receive more votes. In other words, we ask what the probability of an inversion is if the Republican wins the popular vote by 2 percentage points, or by 1 percentage point, or if he or she loses by 3 points or any other number. We calculate the probability of an inversion for each potential national popular vote outcome, tracing a function that describes these probabilities. Electoral College inversions have been very likely since the 1800s…įigure 1a Modern: Electoral College victory probability As a result, we can show that our main conclusions hold no matter what statistical model you think best explains voting patterns in presidential elections. 2004), recent advances in election forecasting (Silver, 2016), as well as other non-parametric approaches. Our statistical model is flexible enough to nest the standard approaches to election modelling from the positive political science literature (Gelman and King 1994, and Katz et al. Using this process, we generate many simulated elections to produce a joint probability distribution over the national popular vote and the national Electoral College outcome. Aggregating across the states yields a probable national election outcome in terms of citizen votes and Electoral College ballots. Sampling from the estimated model yields probable outcomes for each state’s vote tally. We estimate the models using state-level voting data in presidential races extending back to 1836. We specify election models aimed at generating probability distributions over national elections in various historical periods. 2019) we study three eras of US politics from the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries, from contests between Whigs and Democrats before the Civil War to today’s Republicans and Democrats. Was it a fluke that the Electoral College generated four inversions in the last two centuries? Could there have been even more? Are inversions baked into the Electoral College system, or do they depend on the particular candidates or parties? The same types of election models used to forecast presidential races can be cast backwards over the centuries Just before the 2016 election, for example, predicted an 11% chance of an inversion (Silver 2016).īut what has been unclear until now is how often we should expect these electoral inversions. They predict results of particular elections, such as Trump versus Clinton in 2016 in the weeks before voters’ ballots are cast. Just how likely are inversions?Īll of this attention to electoral inversions raises a question: how likely is an inversion? Data journalists and election forecasters have applied increasingly sophisticated statistical tools to analysing politics. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and several other Democratic candidates for the 2020 nomination have openly called for the end of electoral voting – and therefore the end of inversions. These proposals are possibly more politically viable today than ever. Practical proposals to repeal the Electoral College system – including over a hundred constitutional amendments proposed by members of Congress over the past two centuries – are often predicated on the belief that inversions are probable enough to warrant major constitutional change (Edwards 2011, Peirce and Longley 1968). There have been four times when the winner of the presidency did not receive the most votes: 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016. An inversion in the Electoral College happens when the candidate who wins the popular vote is not the candidate who wins the presidency. Today, the Electoral College amounts to a set of mathematical rules that transform the country’s votes into a presidential winner.Īs the world now knows, these rules can yield a surprising result. But the voters do not elect the president, that is done by the Electoral College. Every four years, voters in the US vote for a president. ![]()
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12/29/2023 0 Comments Arduino kits review![]() IC 74HC595 (serial to serial/parallel IC) – 1.LED(Yellow/Blue/Green/White/Red) – 5each.DHT11 Temperature and Humidity Module – 1.It includes power supply module, 9v battery. This kit comes along with a PDF tutorial containing 22 lessons. There are very few complaints about the missing components, but don’t worry customer care is very supportive. Super starter kit is one of the best economical starter kits for beginners from Elegoo. In this post there are 4 Elegoo starter kits for beginners and advanced. You can check the difference between Arduino and Elegoo. Elegoo made their own clones to arduino,those are compatible with arduino. The next kit in the race is Elegoo UNO super starter kit. LEDs (1 x Bright White, 1 x RGB, 8 x Red, 8 x Green, 8 x Yellow and 3 x Blue).Alphanumeric LCD (16×2 character display)-1.If you want to buy a similar one at low cost then scroll down This kit comes with 170 pages PDF, which gives 15 fun projects. 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12/29/2023 0 Comments Touche amore condolences lyrics![]() ![]() ![]() And when we started talking about what we going to do for this album, we’ve thrown out producers and this, that, and the other thing. When we got our manager almost 10 years ago at this point now, he originally managed At The Drive-In, from the start to when they originally broke up, so that was one of the selling points of working with him. So like having him be present in my life from 94 to 2005 – I was obsessed. And then he did the At The Drive-In record, the Blood Brothers record and Worship & Tribute – I was there for all of that up until he did that mid-2000 self-titled Cure album, which I absolutely loved. I was so obsessed with it and knowing that Ross Robinson was behind it – I was so in. So I was working at a street team company and they got an advanced copy of Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About Silence and I fucking wore it out. I was following the path and following the folklore of this guy.Īnd then eventually he did the that first Glassjaw record. And then, yeah, I remember getting $3 Bill Y’all from this kid and then Roots from Sepultura, eventually the Slipknot records. And I remember that just like being like this really intense thing. So I bought the cassette and you know, I was obsessed so early with that band and with being a rabid music fan, even at a young age, I remember getting the VHS called Who’s In Now and in that VHS Ross Robinson speaks in it and has a really intense interview where he’s talking about how getting that emotional reaction is the closest thing to God for him. I was friendly at that age already with the staff who worked there and they would sell me parental advisory albums. And my fucking brain fell out of my head and I went to the Wherehouse Music, which was the whatever street and I bought and I bought their first album on cassette. And then that next year I saw the “Blind” music video on a local music video channel. Ross Robinson has been a figure in my life since I discovered aggressive music, you know? My timeline for music is basically like Kurt Cobain died in ‘94 and my heart was ripped out of my chest at 11 years old. So working with a legend like Ross Robinson had to have been so different since ( Is Survived By and Stage Four producer) Brad (Wood) has basically been like the sixth member. I was like, “I’ll take all of them.” It was full of like ‘90’s alt and nu-metal in there and I was looking through it and yeah Touché Amoré now has a lot in common with $3 Bill Y’all, Iowa, and Korn’s first album. One of my high school friends was trying to get rid of a bunch of her old CDs and posted it on Instagram. Below, we discussed working with Robinson, how the Andy Hull collaboration came about, and the genesis behind the best Touché Amoré songs ever. “I can comfortably say I’m proud of this album more than any other in our discography,” says Bolm. Robinson pushed Touché to their absolute best, resulting in some of the most challenging yet rewarding, genre-pushing music of 2020. From the art direction to the visuals to the actual music, nothing about this band is ever half-assed, so it makes total sense why the quintet would seek out “The Godfather of Nu-Metal” Ross Robinson (a man who’s had his hands on little-known records like Korn’s self-titled album, Iowa, Relationship of Command, Worship & Tribute – just to name a few of the records that completely changed aggressive music) to produce the band’s fifth album. “I wasn’t as focused on doing everything perfect as I was doing it to feel better.” Lament is the band putting in the best work of their decade-plus career – if there’s been one constant about Touché Amoré, it’s that the Los Angeles-based band has always given a shit. “ Stage Four was a mandatory record for my well-being,” explains Bolm. ![]() After the emotional toll 2016’s Stage Four took out of Jeremy Bolm, Lament feels like the Touché Amoré vocalist finally coming up from under the weight of that record for some much needed air. ![]() 12/29/2023 0 Comments Youtube turbo downloader free download![]() ![]() Such programs have a simple UI and allow coping with the task in one click. 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Amerigo is an enhanced file manager that allows you to manage and organize local and cloud-saved files. ![]() 12/29/2023 0 Comments Nutrition tangerine vs orange![]() I understand that in the event of a merger, reorganization, acquisition, joint venture, assignment, spin-off, transfer, asset sale, or sale or disposition of all or any portion of the ASH business, including in connection with any bankruptcy or similar proceedings, ASH may transfer any and all personal information to the relevant third party with the same rights of access and use.For these purposes, I consent to ASH transferring my personal information to entities that may be located outside India. I understand that these entities include but are not restricted to Apollo group companies, affiliate companies, ASH doctors, hospitals, diagnostic centres, chemists, third party service providers to ASH, and law enforcement agencies. For the abovementioned purposes, and to the extent permitted by applicable law, ASH may share, disclose and in some cases transfer all or any information referred to above, to such entities as required to provide services to me, or for compliance with applicable laws.Any purpose(s) required by applicable law.ĭisclosure and Transfer of Personal Information.Investigating, and resolving any disputes or grievances and.Disclosure as required to government authorities in compliance with applicable law.Research for the development and improvement of our products and services including our diagnostics and treatment protocols.Customising suggestions for appropriate medical products and services offered by ASH and affiliates.Receiving personalized announcements/offers of various Apollo group companies. ![]()
12/29/2023 0 Comments Venus trine mars synastry lindaland![]() ![]() "When going gets weird, the weird turn pro." Seriously, their Shite stinks and you really don't care, but you know they shite. There is a great capacity for acceptance. He trusted me immediately.Īll I can say, don't put each other on a pedestal. It took me almost 4 years to completely trust him (my issues, not his). We have been together for almost 6 years and were together about 20 years ago. His Moon Neptune conjunctions conjuncts my Venus Neptune conjunction and my Neptune sextiles his Venus. I guess it's about learning a lesson that goes through heaven and hell….and eventually leads to a self that knows more about the many faces of love With the venus neptune negative aspects,are both potentially deceiving each other? Would it be Neptune deceiving Venus usually?Īs usual, this concept (the 'who's who?') is where I get a little lost. if there is, it might be not so much of a problem, if it is only the Venus-Neptune that marks the attraction, you might have a problem here. I would check if there is enough glue in the personal planet aspects. However all in all Venus-Neptune of course can feel so blissful, it might be intoxicating. But it is still tricky, as they can also wear you down, if they are too heavily configured. Saturn and Neptune are great "cures" for each other - at least under certain circumstances. ONe of the best things (though exhausting, too) to ground Neptune and bring dreams into manifestation and reality, instead of leading only into disillusion or just dreaming without ever touching reality, is Saturn. It is like while it feels like magic at first, eventually it just crumbles and you wake up wondering why you are standing there with two hands full of nothing.īut of course it depends on the overall picture. Usually it takes time to know which it is, and unfortunately with the challenging Neptune aspects, there often comes an eroding effect. I am not so sure it is really about intentional leading-on someone, but the question is: Are you looking at a spiritual truth or an illusion of grandeur? Ever experience tNEPTUNE opposite your VENUS? Ohhhh, dear.Īnd like you I am NOT fond of Neptune square or opposing a personal planet, and especially not Venus (for some reason I find Neptune-square-Mars tantalizingly attractive, but it is a double edged sword) Think of the 'people as permanent transits'. But that's rarely the case, and it's never a bad idea to be most mindful and watchful, just to be on the safe side. Of course, even the soft aspects can be perverted and corrupted by affliction. I think I've experienced them too much to now be on my guard somewhat - unless there's clear reason not to be. I don't mean to be old-fashioned, but I do not like the squares and oppositions. His Neptune trine my Venus and my Neptune trine his Venus.įrom: Tinseltown, Hollyweird, The Multiverse I have Venus trine Neptune both ways with someone in synastry. But, other aspects were much stronger and caused us to both 'come to Jesus' so to speak, to try and work out what was wrong. I have caught him in lies before - and that led me to believe the ABSOLUTE worst. He has questioned my stability in his life. In my situation, my venus sextiles his neptune, my neptune semisquares his venus. In my relationship, we broke up several times because of a feeling it must be too good to be true and that we were deceiving each other. but I would say the FEELING of 'being deceived' goes both ways - the neptune person may feel it in that aspect, or the venus person may. I have a very neptune-filled relationship. To me, neptune's about learning to have faith in each other. Opposition to me can go in a few ways - ARE you in any way deceiving him? There may be a bit of a question mark on this aspect - to me these neptune influences encourage a feeling of connectedness between the two of you, but can definitely cause a feeling of worry here and there - it's VERY important that you learn to be 100% open with each other and also learn to turn to faith. Trines are positive, so that's okay in my book. Your venus trining his neptune should be a good, spiritual connection. I am very positive about this connection and this makes me really dreamy.īut my Neptune opposes his Venus so do he think I am deceiving him? Topic: Venus Neptune synastry- true love, deception or confusion? Venus Neptune synastry- true love, deception or confusion? Venus Neptune synastry- true love, deception or confusion? - Lindaland Welcome, Knowflakes, to Lindaland! () ![]() 12/28/2023 0 Comments Mac os 10.15 7![]() ![]() If you do not know who your IT Support Provider is, please use the IT Lookup Toolto locate the appropriate support resource for your department. Students can contact the Tech Team for assistance with or questions about upgrading their machine to a supported version of macOS.įaculty, Staff, and Employees should contact their IT support unit. Where can I get help with upgrading macOS? Once your computer has successfully upgraded to macOS 10.11 you can use the steps above to upgrade to a supported version of macOS. ![]() Choose a startup disk, and click 'Install'. The macOS Utilities screen will load, and you need to select 'Reinstall macOS', and then click 'Continue'. The startup will take longer, because macOS recovery is loading. Immediately start holding Shift + Option + Command + R. If you are running macOS 10.10 or lower, you will need to upgrade your computer to 10.11 El Capitan first. 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